An Extreme Hangover From the Beer Virus, How Long Will It Last?

A Hangover from The Beer Virus

Okay, so we all know the story. Some are out hoarding decades worth of toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizers, and cleaning supplies. Some want to cash in, and price gouges others to make a profit. Which may have worked for a while, but eventually amazon and eBay banned them, and now they are stuck with 17k bottles and nowhere to sell them (boo-hoo).

Others are just trying to find control, in a seemingly uncontrollable situation.

Neither are worth the Costco line that’s almost six blocks long and two hours to get to. Or the subsequent stabbing over toilet paper or supplies with a wine bottle. (Are you kidding me – seriously?!).

Oh, and let’s not forget the global market crash along with the US market losing 11.5 Trillion dollars. I had to have a drink before I even looked at my 401k yesterday. I know it wasn’t pretty for a lot of us.

Not to mention, the shutting down of cities, countries, and all-out travel bans. Although I do greatly appreciate the cheap flights, I also appreciate the ability to enjoy the location and trip back home. And let’s not forget that those markets aren’t buying or consuming any goods. So if you sell to China or any of the hot spots, you can forget about seeing any revenue.

Spending six hours waiting for bags and then 2-4 hours waiting for customs, can sure as hell put a damper on your plans. I’ve got patience, but that’s just pressing your luck. Too many people, in too small of a space – shoulder to shoulder, what could be worse? (Check it out). It sounds like cruel and unusual punishment if you ask me.

Which leaves us to askhow long will the hangover/recession last?

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What Category Benchmarking Reports are Telling Us

I took the liberty to look back at some category intelligence reports on the impact of Coronavirus in late January. It’s interesting to see that the short term for things like base metals was low in the short term (3-6 months), but high in the long term (6-12 months).

And the impact assessment for other categories such as warehousing, marketing, paper packaging, and some chemicals (Detergent, IPA & Acetone, absorbent polymers, etc.) were all projects to be low to medium impact.

But in this week’s most recent edition, it appears to be all doom and gloom. Here are some of the highlights:

  • Base metals remain in the high impact categories for the long term, while Chemicals, Paper packaging, chemicals have moved into the medium-high impact for the long term.
  • Oil and gas originally were suggested to be a medium impact, has now moved into a negative long term impact as demand is massively decreasing.
  • The WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of PPE – to 47 countries, but supplies are rapidly depleting. (About 80% of all PPE manufactured globally comes from Asia, that have all stopped exporting products, a situation expected to continue through April.)
  • Feb. 27th, 2020 – the US FDA released a statement on the impact of COVID-19 on the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to supply / shortages of critical medical products in the US.
  • The virus is expected to hit German supply chains in the upcoming weeks.
  • $50 billion decline in global exports in February alone.
  • Despite suppliers ramping up production of hand sanitizer, there is still an extreme shortage in the marketplace.

Next, let’s forget the experts, and use some common sense when it comes to Hangovers. (Which a LOT of people seem to be lacking lately)

Hoarding with from Costco, Pharmacy, and Grocery Markets. 

Listen, I don’t hate you if you are trying to stock up for your large family. But, if the elderly and hospitals can’t find a supply of essentials in your town because of your greed, we will have a problem. And I will not be nice about it.

I will say that I literally felt like I won the lotto when I found two cans of Lysol in my local CVS. I then felt immediately guilty for purchasing them, that isn’t right.

Sadly enough, until all the hoarders get their fill, we are going to continue to see shortages at the grocery store or Costco, limiting on products in amazon pantry, and delivery times being heavily delayed.

Hangover = Global Recession?

Borders are shutting down, businesses are closing at a rapid rate, and jobless claims have shot up like Elon Musk’s Space X Rocket launch. I just read an article by CNN, that states the beer virus has thrown us into a global recession. It’s the black swan event that I doubt many saw coming.

So how long will it last, well I guess a hangover is a dependant upon how much you drank the night before. How far behind is your country in testing, treating cases, and effectively ordering shelter in place requirements?

The global economy will definitely be hit hard for the rest of the year. It’s just how much longer will it last?  Is it only going to take us a year, maybe five or the rest of the decade? Who knows how long we will see the ripple effect last.

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Hangover Cures aka Recession Advice

So what advice can we give to each other in the recession (aside not being greedy and hoarding)? Here are a few things I found on the web:

Here’s what an article from BankRate – 7 ways to help recession proof your finances:

  • Pay down debt.
  • Boost emergency savings.
  • Identify ways to cut back.
  • Live within your means.
  • Focus on the long haul.
  • Identify your risk tolerance.
  • Continue your education and build up skills.

Nothing really earth shattering in my opinion. General common sense. And you know, sometimes that’s the best advice you can get! But here are a few other links to articles that I’ve found:

And if you are looking for some general advice on your career, check out these blog posts:

And don’t forget – stay safe and healthy!

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